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Lingering lake-effect snow showers taper off tonight as high pressure builds in, leaving skies clearing and conditions improving by morning.
Dry and mild Tuesday with southerly winds pushing highs into the upper 40s to low 50s under a building ridge of high pressure.
Educational Summary
Issued: Mar 23, 7:41 PM · Cleveland NWS
Tonight's lingering snow showers are courtesy of a departing upper-level shortwave — a small kink in the jet stream that acts like a trigger, lifting unstable air and generating those cold-season lake-effect flurries off Lake Erie. As that shortwave exits to the east, a ridge of high pressure is building into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes, essentially acting like a dome of sinking air that suppresses cloud development and shuts down precipitation. By morning, most of us should be waking up to clearing skies and calm winds.
Tuesday and Wednesday bring a welcome stretch of dry, mild weather as that high pressure ridge settles in and southerly 'return flow' kicks in. Think of return flow like a conveyor belt pulling warmer air up from the south — it's the same reason spring warmups often feel sudden. Highs climb from the upper 40s Tuesday all the way into the mid-50s to low 60s by Wednesday. Enjoy it, because it won't last long.
The big story this week is a powerful cold front arriving late Thursday. Ahead of it, atmospheric moisture spikes dramatically — forecasters are watching 'precipitable water' values climb to 1.00–1.25 inches, which measures how much moisture is packed into the entire depth of the atmosphere above us. For late March in Cleveland, that's in the top 10% historically, meaning any thunderstorms that fire could drop very heavy rainfall in a short time. Add in 500+ joules per kilogram of instability (CAPE) and 50–60 knots of wind shear through the atmosphere, and the ingredients for strong to severe thunderstorms come together — forecasters will be watching this setup closely all week.
Behind the cold front, temperatures crash back toward freezing Thursday night — a dramatic 40+ degree swing from the afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s ahead of the front. This kind of temperature contrast across a frontal boundary is actually what fuels the storm energy in the first place; the greater the temperature difference, the more atmospheric 'fuel' is available. High pressure then returns for the weekend, with a gradual warm-up back into the 50s and 60s by next week.
Tonight
Mon, Mar 23
Tuesday
Tue, Mar 24
Tuesday Night
Tue, Mar 24
Wednesday
Wed, Mar 25
Wednesday Night
Wed, Mar 25
Thursday
Thu, Mar 26
Thursday Night
Thu, Mar 26
Friday
Fri, Mar 27
Friday Night
Fri, Mar 27
Saturday
Sat, Mar 28
Saturday Night
Sat, Mar 28
Sunday
Sun, Mar 29
Sunday Night
Sun, Mar 29
Monday
Mon, Mar 30
Clear
Obs. 12:05 AM
Sunny
Snow Showers Likely then Partly Cloudy