Loading rain check...
Loading forecast...
Loading discussion...
7-Day Forecast
Today
Aug 15
48%
85°
72°
Sun
Aug 16
65%
88°
71°
Mon
Aug 17
11%
82°
63°
Tue
Aug 18
1%
81°
64°
Wed
Aug 19
37%
84°
66°
Loading rain check...
Loading forecast...
Loading discussion...
Today
Aug 15
Sun
Aug 16
Mon
Aug 17
Tue
Aug 18
Wed
Aug 19
Issued Aug 15, 6:59 AM
This afternoon we've got a 48% chance of showers and thunderstorms moving in as the day heats up to 85°F, but the real story kicks off tonight. A second round of storms is moving in, and that's when things get serious. We're looking at showers and thunderstorms likely tonight (93% chance) with heavy rainfall possible. Tomorrow stays unsettled too, with another 65% chance of storms before a cold front finally pushes through Sunday night.
What's driving all this moisture and instability is a couple of things working together. There's an unusually wet air mass parked over the region right now (meteorologists call it high precipitable water, basically a measure of how much water vapor the atmosphere is holding). That wet air, combined with a disturbance moving through from Illinois and Missouri tonight, plus a low-level jet (that's a concentrated ribbon of wind at a few thousand feet) pushing warm air northward, creates the perfect recipe for extremely efficient rainfall rates. In plain terms: when storms do fire up, they're going to wring out a lot of rain in a short time. There's also a weak surface low that could rotate some of the wind, which is why there's a non-zero threat for tornadoes mixed in with the damaging straight-line wind threat.
After this cold front clears us out Sunday night, we'll shift gears pretty quickly. Temperatures will drop to or slightly below normal by early next week, and the humidity will finally break. That's actually a nice change coming, but we've got to get through a humid, stormy weekend first. The flood watch that's been issued across our area reflects how serious the rainfall threat is, especially if any spot gets hit by multiple rounds of storms.
Storms are likely this afternoon, and another round sweeps through tonight with heavy rain possible. Flooding is a real concern if multiple rounds stack up.
Tomorrow
Sunday stays unsettled with storms likely, especially in the afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Any storm could turn strong.
Flood Watch issued August 15 at 2:16AM EDT until August 16 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
Today–Tomorrow
A Flood Watch is in effect through Sunday morning. Rainfall rates could be extremely high, and repeated rounds of storms raise flash flood risk.
Today through Sun morning
Tonight's storm round brings a non-zero tornado threat as a weak surface low backs winds and a low-level jet nosing in adds spin to the atmosphere.
Sat evening and overnight
A cold front clears the area late Sunday, dropping temps and humidity noticeably by Tuesday. Drier and more comfortable air returns for the early work week.
Sun night into Tue
Storms possible today
NWS puts the chance at 48%. Then showers today ~9 PM — about 1″ total.
Today
75%
0.41″
Sun
71%
0.62″
Mon
50%
0.07″
Tue
—
Wed
36%
You're already in light rain right now at Columbus. The official forecast keeps a 48% chance of showers and storms through the rest of today, then it gets much wetter tonight — 93% chance with showers and thunderstorms likely, and models suggest the heaviest rain around 10 PM and into the early morning hours. Sunday stays unsettled with a 65% chance of more showers and storms, but conditions improve significantly Monday into Tuesday with just a 11% chance — your best stretch of the week.