Burlington, VT Weather

The Wolfecast

Clear skies and mild temps the rest of tonight. It'll be a great night to leave the windows open.

Tomorrow

Sunny and hot with highs near 88°F. One of the nicest days of the stretch before storms arrive.

66°

ClearL:61°

Wear

Light layer

Rain

No umbrella

Bring layers for tonight

11:25 PM

Dangerous heat builds Wednesday through the holiday weekend. Heat indices could hit 95 to 103°F, and NWS is likely to issue a heat advisory as confidence grows.

Wed through Sat

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon. Models are showing enough instability and wind shear for supercells, so this is worth watching closely.

Wed afternoon

Storms are also possible Tuesday evening and overnight, though the timing limits surface instability. Heavy rain and small hail are the main concerns.

Tue evening

Forecast ConfidenceHigh

Rain Check5 days · HRRR + blend

Next rain: Tuesday ~3 PM

Showers Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning — about ½″ total. Dry for the rest of today.

Today

—

Mon

—

Tue

70%

0.08″

Wed

70%

1.11″

Thu

60%

0.13″

Shade = chance · bars = amountNights dark · tap to inspect

You're in the clear tonight and all through tomorrow — models keep it dry from now through tomorrow evening with just a trace chance late in the day. The next meaningful rain looks to arrive Tuesday into Wednesday, when we could see a wet stretch with around an inch possible Wednesday.

HRRR Simulated Radar

Tropical Tidbits

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7-Day Forecast

Today

Jun 28

Mostly Clear

61°

Mon

Jun 29

Sunny

88°

66°

Tue

Jun 30

43%

Partly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

88°

71°

Wed

Jul 1

46%

Chance Rain Showers then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

94°

74°

Thu

Jul 2

38%

Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

95°

74°

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Why This Forecast

NWS BTV Analysis

Issued Jun 28, 7:13 PM

Tonight stays clear and mild in the upper 50s to low 60s, then Monday turns gorgeous—sunny, calm, and pushing 88°F in Burlington. But don't get too comfortable. Tuesday afternoon brings a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms as a shortwave trough (a dip in the jet stream, that river of fast air up around 30,000 feet) moves overhead. The bigger story starts Wednesday: dangerous heat with highs near 88°F, but what really matters is the humidity. Dewpoints in the lower 70s will push heat indices into the mid-90s. Worse, we're watching for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon as atmospheric instability builds.

Here's what's driving this wild swing. A high-pressure dome is anchored to our south, feeding warm, moist air up from the Gulf. Shortwave disturbances are moving through on the northern edge of this ridge, like trains on a track. Tuesday's storms will develop aloft in the evening when the air parcel isn't as buoyant at ground level, limiting severe potential. Wednesday is the dangerous day. The atmosphere will have enough buoyancy (CAPE around 1500–2000 joules per kilogram), enough wind shear to organize storms into supercells, and enough heat and humidity to fuel them. Models show the possibility of large hail, very heavy rain, and strong wind gusts.

Looking ahead, the heat ridge expands and anchors through Thursday and Friday, with heat index values potentially hitting 100°F or more. Daily chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue, especially later in the week when more dynamics align with the moisture. Some of those storms could produce localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding because of the atmospheric setup and the way storms will be oriented. This is the kind of pattern where you need to stay weather-aware—not just for the heat, but for the severe and flooding threats that come along with it.

Updated 11:48 PM

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Maps & Tools

GOES East Satellite

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Storm Prediction Center

SPC outlooks & watches

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6–14 day & monthly outlooks

Surface Winds

Global wind patterns — earth.nullschool.net

Other Cool Sites

Ag-Wx

Agricultural weather data & maps

Nadocast

ML-based severe weather forecasts

About the weather in Burlington, VT

Wolfecast gives you the Burlington, VT forecast the way a meteorologist would explain it to a neighbor. Instead of just a number, we read the National Weather Service forecast discussion issued by the BTV office, translate it into plain English, and tell you how confident to be and why. The radar loop above comes from the KCXX station, and every forecast is grounded in official NWS data for your exact location.

Check back each morning for an updated read on temperature swings, rain timing, and any storms worth watching around Burlington. Want alerts when rain is minutes away? Install Wolfecast and turn on notifications.