Helena, MT Weather

The Wolfecast

Rain is falling across Helena and will continue through the night. Temps hold in the low 40s overnight.

Tomorrow

Rain persists into Monday, then showers and thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon. Highs reach the mid-50s.

54°

CloudyL:42°

Wear

Jacket

Rain

Bring umbrella

7:45 PM

A wet stretch runs through Monday with 1 to 3 inches of rain possible across the Helena area by the time it wraps up.

Sun night through Mon

Storms pop back up Tuesday afternoon and evening, and that pattern looks to repeat most days through the week.

Tue and beyond

Temps rebound into the low 70s by Tuesday despite the storm chances, so the pattern stays active but warmer.

Tue

Rain Check5 days · HRRR + blend

Next rain: today ~9 PM

Showers tonight into tomorrow evening — about ½″ total. More possible Tuesday.

Today

47%

0.03″

Mon

90%

0.61″

Tue

48%

Wed

73%

Thu

53%

Shade = chance · bars = amountNights dark · tap to inspect

Right now it's cloudy but dry in Helena. Rain looks to move in overnight, with the best chance and heaviest rain coming tomorrow morning between 6 and 9 AM — expect around a quarter inch or so — then scattered showers continue off and on through the afternoon before tapering off by evening. Conditions settle down for most of Tuesday, though Wednesday looks a bit wetter again with another round of chances in the afternoon.

HRRR Simulated Radar

Tropical Tidbits

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7-Day Forecast

Today

Jun 28

Rain

42°

Mon

Jun 29

98%

Rain then Showers And Thunderstorms

56°

46°

Tue

Jun 30

55%

Partly Sunny then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely

70°

47°

Wed

Jul 1

69%

Showers And Thunderstorms Likely

71°

47°

Thu

Jul 2

43%

Mostly Sunny then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

74°

47°

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Why This Forecast

NWS TFX Analysis

Issued Jun 28, 6:05 PM

Rain's going to be steady through tonight and all day Monday here in Helena. You'll see moderate to heavy rain this evening and overnight, with the heaviest hitting right around dinner time. Monday stays wet with rain shifting into showers and thunderstorms by afternoon, then things start to clear out Monday evening. Highs Monday around 56°F. By Tuesday it'll warm to around 70°F with only a chance of afternoon storms.

What's driving this is a couple of upper-level low pressure systems stacked right on top of surface lows, kind of like a spinning top that's slowly moving south toward the Canadian border. The upper-level low closest to us right now is cold enough that snow's still falling in the high country south of I-90, but here in Helena we're on the warmer side of this system, so it's all rain. The surface low's about peaked in intensity and is filling in fast, which is why the rain tapers off after Monday evening. The northeasterly winds at mid-levels (say, 10,000 to 20,000 feet up) are getting forced down and pushing all this moisture our way, and that forcing from the upper-level trough keeps squeezing out precipitation through the next 36 hours or so.

Even after this system clears out, there's still broad troughing aloft all week, which means afternoon and evening thunderstorms'll be a regular thing. The good news is there's not much wind shear (that's the change in wind speed and direction with height), so don't expect severe storms—just regular, scattered activity. By Wednesday and beyond, temperatures'll keep climbing back to normal for late June, with maybe mid-70s possible by week's end.

Updated 8:21 PM

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About the weather in Helena, MT

Wolfecast gives you the Helena, MT forecast the way a meteorologist would explain it to a neighbor. Instead of just a number, we read the National Weather Service forecast discussion issued by the TFX office, translate it into plain English, and tell you how confident to be and why. The radar loop above comes from the KTFX station, and every forecast is grounded in official NWS data for your exact location.

Check back each morning for an updated read on temperature swings, rain timing, and any storms worth watching around Helena. Want alerts when rain is minutes away? Install Wolfecast and turn on notifications.