Rochester, NY Weather

The Wolfecast

Clear skies and a mild night ahead, dropping to around 62°F. No weather concerns overnight.

Tomorrow

Monday is hot and mostly sunny, climbing to near 88°F. Showers and storms move in late Monday night as a warm front arrives.

73°

ClearL:62°

Wear

Light layer

Rain

No umbrella

Bring layers for tonight

9:45 PM

Dangerous heat builds Wednesday through Thursday. Heat indices could hit 95–100°F, and overnight lows stay in the 70s with little relief.

Wed–Thu

The heat pattern is near the 99th percentile for late June. NWS is confident heat headlines will be issued for the region.

Mid-week

Storms are likely Tuesday as the warm front pushes through. Some could be strong, especially across the Finger Lakes region into the afternoon.

Tue morning–afternoon

Rain Check5 days · HRRR + blend

Next rain: Tuesday ~9 AM

Showers Tuesday morning through afternoon — about ½″ total. Dry for the rest of today.

Today

—

Mon

—

Tue

46%

0.56″

Wed

25%

Thu

—

Shade = chance · bars = amountNights dark · tap to inspect

You're in the clear tonight and all day tomorrow — the forecast keeps Rochester dry through tomorrow evening with no rain expected. A chance of showers moves in Tuesday with the forecast showing up to around half an inch of rain possible, then conditions dry back out Wednesday and Thursday.

HRRR Simulated Radar

Tropical Tidbits

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7-Day Forecast

Today

Jun 28

Partly Cloudy

62°

Mon

Jun 29

Mostly Sunny

88°

71°

Tue

Jun 30

63%

Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely

93°

77°

Wed

Jul 1

10%

Mostly Sunny

96°

77°

Thu

Jul 2

Sunny

98°

77°

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Why This Forecast

NWS BUF Analysis

Issued Jun 28, 7:22 PM

Tonight you've got partly cloudy skies and a mild 62 degrees. Tomorrow (Monday) shapes up as a mostly sunny, hot day with highs around 88°F, but late Monday night into Tuesday is when things get interesting. A warm front's going to push through, bringing a surge of warm, moist air and kicking up a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially Tuesday afternoon. We're looking at highs near 93 and rain chances around 63% by then.

Here's what's driving it: an upper-level ridge (a bulge of high pressure up around 30,000 feet) is building over the eastern Great Lakes and will stick around for most of the week. That ridge is actually running at the 99th percentile—meaning we're talking truly exceptional strength for late June. But first, that warm front has to push through Monday night. When it does, it'll haul in 850-millibar temperatures (that's the lower atmosphere) of +20°C and dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s. That combination of warmth and moisture creates instability, which is exactly what thunderstorms need. The National Weather Service is watching upstream convection (storms forming further west) that might influence what we see Tuesday morning, though the threat for any strong storms remains low.

Once we get past Tuesday's rain, that ridge really takes over Wednesday through Friday, and dangerous heat moves in. We're expecting widespread heat indices surging past 95°F, with some spots south of Lake Ontario potentially hitting 100°F. Overnight lows in the 70s with humid air mean little relief even at night. This kind of setup—a really strong upper-level ridge combined with a warm, moist airmass—is what meteorologists watch for heat waves.

Updated 10:25 PM

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About the weather in Rochester, NY

Wolfecast gives you the Rochester, NY forecast the way a meteorologist would explain it to a neighbor. Instead of just a number, we read the National Weather Service forecast discussion issued by the BUF office, translate it into plain English, and tell you how confident to be and why. The radar loop above comes from the KBUF station, and every forecast is grounded in official NWS data for your exact location.

Check back each morning for an updated read on temperature swings, rain timing, and any storms worth watching around Rochester. Want alerts when rain is minutes away? Install Wolfecast and turn on notifications.