Tallahassee, FL Weather

The Wolfecast

Storms fire up this afternoon and could be strong, with gusty winds and frequent lightning. It's also dangerously hot, with heat index values potentially topping 105°F before storms develop.

Tomorrow

A brief break from storms Wednesday, with mostly sunny skies and just a slight afternoon storm chance. Still very hot, near 94°F.

81°

ClearL:78°

Wear

Shorts & tee

Rain

Bring umbrella

12:20 AM

A shortwave impulse boosts storm coverage Tuesday afternoon into evening. Some storms could produce strong wind gusts and lightning, plus slow-moving cells could cause localized street flooding.

Tue afternoon–evening

Dangerous heat builds Tuesday with heat index values likely hitting 105°F or higher before storms cool things off. A Heat Advisory is expected.

Tue afternoon

Heat cranks back up over the Fourth of July holiday weekend as the ridge rebuilds.

Fri–Sun

Rain Check5 days · HRRR + blend

No rain expected through Saturday

Highest chance: Saturday afternoon at 36%.

Today

32%

Wed

—

Thu

—

Fri

18%

Sat

36%

Shade = chance · bars = amountNights dark · tap to inspect

You're starting off dry under clear skies, and you'll stay dry through the morning. The afternoon looks mostly clear too, but the HRRR is showing pop-up shower chances ramping up between 3 and 7 PM — those probabilities in the 26–32% range suggest there's a real chance of a quick shower or two, though nothing organized. Tomorrow looks dry from start to finish. Into the weekend, rain chances gradually tick up Friday and especially Saturday, but we're still talking scattered activity rather than anything widespread.

HRRR Simulated Radar

Tropical Tidbits

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7-Day Forecast

Today

Jun 30

80%

Showers And Thunderstorms

95°

75°

Wed

Jul 1

15%

Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

94°

73°

Thu

Jul 2

Sunny

95°

75°

Fri

Jul 3

26%

Sunny then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

95°

75°

Sat

Jul 4

39%

Sunny then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

95°

76°

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Why This Forecast

NWS TAE Analysis

Issued Jun 29, 9:51 PM

We're heading into a dangerously hot and wet Tuesday. You'll wake up to mostly clear skies around 78°F, but things change fast once the sun climbs. By afternoon, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop with an 80% chance of rain, and highs pushing to 95°F. Some of those storms could pack strong wind gusts and frequent lightning, so don't linger outdoors if you hear thunder. Tuesday night stays active with storms lingering into the evening before conditions settle by midweek.

What's driving this setup is a strong upper-level high-pressure ridge sitting north of us—that's the reason we're so hot to begin with. But here's where it gets interesting: a shortwave impulse (basically a dip in the jet stream, that river of fast air around 30,000 feet) is wrapping around the southern edge of that ridge and will squeeze out plenty of lift for storms tomorrow afternoon. The atmosphere has lots of instability too, meaning if storms fire up, they'll have energy to work with. The steering flow from the northeast could slow some storms down, raising the risk of localized flooding if the same area gets hammered twice.

Wednesday brings relief. Drier air moves in, and while a slight chance of storms lingers (around 15%), we'll see mostly sunny skies and highs near 94°F. By late week, the ridge breaks down and we'll shift back to a more typical summer pattern with afternoon thunderstorm activity returning for the holiday weekend. For now, stay hydrated and seek air conditioning during the peak heat—the combination of heat and humidity will feel worse than the thermometer suggests.

Updated 12:44 AM

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About the weather in Tallahassee, FL

Wolfecast gives you the Tallahassee, FL forecast the way a meteorologist would explain it to a neighbor. Instead of just a number, we read the National Weather Service forecast discussion issued by the TAE office, translate it into plain English, and tell you how confident to be and why. The radar loop above comes from the KTLH station, and every forecast is grounded in official NWS data for your exact location.

Check back each morning for an updated read on temperature swings, rain timing, and any storms worth watching around Tallahassee. Want alerts when rain is minutes away? Install Wolfecast and turn on notifications.